India’s Claim for UN Permanent Membership Strengthened by Surpassing China in Population

India’s claim for permanent membership in the could be strengthened if it surpasses China and becomes the world’s most populous nation in 2023, as stated by a top UN population official.

The World Population Prospects 2022 report, released on Monday, projects that India will exceed China as the world’s most populous country next year. In 2022, India’s population is 1.412 billion, compared to China’s 1.426 billion.

By 2023, India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with a projected population of 1.668 billion in 2050, well ahead of China’s 1.317 billion by mid-century.

According to the report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, global population is estimated to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022. The global population growth rate is the slowest since 1950, falling below one percent in 2020.

Projections suggest that global population could reach around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, peaking at around 10.4 billion in the 2080s and remaining at that level until 2100.

John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), mentioned that if India becomes the most populous country, it may strengthen its claim for permanent membership in the Security Council.

India has been actively advocating for reforming the Security Council to better reflect the current geo-political realities of the world.

Wilmoth noted that China experienced a more drastic reduction in population size due to effective fertility reduction policies implemented in the 1970s and 80s, leading to rapid aging of the population. In contrast, India’s population transition has been smoother, with a more gradual decline in fertility rates and aging.

Patrick Gerland, Chief of the Population Estimates and Projection Section, Population Division, mentioned that once India conducts its next census, new information will be available to reassess population projections.

The report highlighted that Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, with 2.3 billion people, and Central and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion people, were the two most populous regions in 2022, with China and India having the largest populations in these regions.

Over half of the projected global population increase up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.